Photo: ©Stephen Munday /Allsport Paul Lawrie was the last European to win a major with his victory in the 1999 British Open at Carnoustie.

Nearly eight years have passed and as many as 29 major championships have been played since the unlikely Paul Lawrie lifted the old Claret Jug aloft at Carnoustie back in 1999. Yet the Scot remains the last European to win one of golf's four most important events, a period of futility that has coincided with an era of unprecedented old world dominance in the Ryder Cup. Even for golf, an unpredictable sport at the best of times, such a dichotomy is strange indeed, especially when one considers the obvious abilities of the increasing number of elite European golfers in the early part of this 21st century.

Many are the reasons that have been volunteered to explain the inability of talented individuals - and staunch team performers in the midst of the supposedly peerless Ryder Cup pressures - like Darren Clarke, Lee Westwood, Colin Montgomerie, Paul Casey, Luke Donald, Padraig Harrington, Sergio Garcia, Thomas Bjorn and Miguel Angel Jimenez to convert multiple opportunities into Grand Slam gold. Inevitably, some of those conclusions have more merit than others.

There are those who reckon that three out of four majors in America every year gives the home players a built-in and unfair advantage. Which rings true. How else can one interpret the fact that 20 of the 29 since Lawrie have been won by nephews of Uncle Sam? Two out of every three is pretty close to dominance in golfing terms.

Speaking of which, of that 20, 14 have been won by only two men, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, with the former garnering 11 on his own. In what history will surely label, 'the Woods era,' beating the Tiger makes winning any major championship that bit harder for any player, no matter his country of origin. It is, for example, safe to assume that the likes of Mickelson, Vijay Singh and the prodigiously talented Ernie Els would have more than three majors apiece to their names had young Eldrick not come along.

So the Europeans need not feel too bad at their collective failure. Again since Lawrie, only 14 men have been good enough to win even one major title. Which isn't many. But, then again, seeing names like Rich Beem, Ben Curtis, Shaun Micheel, Michael Campbell, Mike Weir and David Toms - all of whom are not noticeably superior to, say, Monty, Clarke or Garcia (quite the opposite, actually) - on the roster of recent major champions must surely stick in Europe's craw.

Still, while the annual inconvenience of three away games out of four has to be taken into account, it must be acknowledged that this factor is less and less significant in the 'why can't Europeans win?' debate. Gone are the days when the generation headed by Sam Torrance, Mark James and Howard Clark were routinely and shamefully denied places in the US-based majors, to be replaced by a new, more outward-looking age where ability rather than nationality is the most important criterion for entry. Besides, the vast majority of today's leading Europeans are PGA Tour members, well used to the conditions prevalent in a normal American summer.

Of course, we may be digging too deeply. There may be a simple enough reason for why, after such a rich period of major championship domination during the 1980s and early 90s it has suddenly become so hard for Europeans to win golf tournaments at the very highest level. Maybe they are just not good enough or, at least, not hungry enough. Whisper it, but maybe the current crop of European 'stars' don't shine quite so brightly as did their immediate predecessors in what was, admittedly, something of a golden age for European golf. Twenty years ago Howard Clark was perhaps the seventh best player on the European Tour. Today he would be number one. That's the difference.

Let's not be too harsh though. In defence of the leading Euros, a good case can be made that something needs to be done about the environment from which they emerge to battle the best of the rest in major championship play. Jumping from the likes of, say, the appalling Celtic Manor to the stringency of a US Open layout is asking a lot of any golfer.

Photo: ©David Cannon/Getty Images Lee Westwood and Darren Clarke are very close friends who may of lost there drive to win.

Then there are the enormous sums of money available to more and more of today's leading players. Is Europe breeding a generation of players who are simply not hungry enough to succeed when the going gets beyond tough? When one sees the 'toys' available to the likes of Westwood and Clarke, one does wonder a little about them even subconsciously letting up in their drive for improvement.

Still, let's look on the bright side for a moment. No matter how good Tiger is, no matter how many of the damn things are played in the States and not matter how bad many of the European Tour courses may be, a European golfer has to win a major some time. He just has to.

So, with that reassuring thought in mind and using a simple process of elimination, here is the man most likely to relegate Lawrie from hero to has-been at the upcoming Masters...

JUST NOT GOOD ENOUGH

This could also be renamed the amateur category, in which, unusually, the Europeans this year have two members. Amateur champion Julien Guerrier of France is joined by Scotland's Richie Ramsay, who last year surprised everyone - himself included - when he lifted the US Amateur crown.

This is a whole new ball game though. Not only do the play-for-fun guys have less than no chance of victory, it says here they will have real problems breaking 80 around the newly souped-up Augusta National. Twenty-five Europeans left.

TOO OLD

It comes to us all in the end, of course. And, sadly, time has not been kind to Europe's 'Big Five' from the 1980s and early 90s. Only Bernhard Langer still has an occasional capacity to compete with the very best, but 72 holes on a stretched-to-the-limit golf course against bigger and stronger players is too much even for the stoic German.

As for the other four, the harsh reality is that they could all have joined the two amateurs in the previous category. Let's not even get into Seve's golf over the last few years. Or Sandy Lyle's. Nick Faldo will be too busy in the booth. And Ian Woosnam is still recovering from his Ryder Cup captaincy.

In addition, it is with a feeling of some sadness that I must add a brace of Spaniards to this category. Now both in their 40s, neither Jose Maria Olazabal nor Miguel Angel Jimenez has what it takes to produce the four good rounds it will take to win. Sorry Ollie.

Call them all a cab on Friday evening.

Eighteen to go.

ROOKIES

First-time visitors to the 'charms' of Augusta National are notorious for their inability to compete successfully with those who have built up some form of immunity to the inherent daftness seen on many of Augusta's holes. It just takes time to get used to all the nonsense that goes with playing in the Masters. I mean, where else can you putt or chip into a pond with a perfectly good shot?

Anyway, this admittedly harsh assessment does for the chances of Bradley Dredge, Johan Edfors, Kenneth Ferrie and Robert Karlsson. It is perhaps hard to see off the two Swedes who both have the sorts of games that should do well in a Masters. But it will be next year, at least, for them.

Fourteen left.

DON'T PUTT WELL ENOUGH

It is a fact that no one, no matter how skilled tee-to-green, can win a professional golf tournament without putting at least semi-decently. And that pre-requisite is cubed at Augusta National, where the greens resemble nothing more than polished linoleum. Use any cliche you like - my favourite is the one about putting off the car bonnet - but the unpalatable truth is that only someone with the touch of a surgeon (that's my second favourite) can even think of pulling on a green jacket come Sunday evening.

All of which takes out as many as seven players, most notably Sergio Garcia. Sadly for one who hits the ball so purely, the mercurial Spaniard has looked increasingly uncomfortable on the greens over the last 18 months or so. And owning a lack of confidence in one's putting is no way to enter a Masters.

Joining Sergio in this also-ran category are Darren Clarke (sadly out of form on and off the greens), Colin Montgomerie (can't make anything on Sundays any more), Carl Pettersson (long putters don't win majors), Lee Westwood (just because), Ian Poulter (see Westwood) and Justin Rose (see Poulter).

Seven still standing.

JUST NOT QUITE GOOD ENOUGH

There is still much in the way of hope for those destined to perish in this category. For this is where the likes of Todd Hamilton, Ben Curtis and Mike Weir would have ended up before they popped up and won major championships. In fact, I'm not sure the first two would even have made it this far.

As far as this Masters is concerned, three more Europeans, each with distinguished pedigrees, fall under this heading. It is my sincerest wish that either will prove me wrong, but, so far at least, the numbers don't lie. While all three have dabbled with contention at more than one major, neither has yet proved to have the staying power it takes to win. So it's bye-bye to Niclas Fasth, Thomas Bjorn and David Howell.

Only four to go.

PERFORMING UNDER THE SEVEREST PRESSURE

Again, it would come as no surprise to be wrong about any of the men who have so far been unimpressive in this category. Failure to win having had a real chance down the stretch can be what the Americans love to call a 'learning experience' just as much as it can be confirmation of a fatal flaw in a golfer's make-up.

So for Luke Donald and Padraig Harrington this is more a suspended sentence than being put to death. It would be silly to argue that any of them lack the qualities needed to prevail at the highest level, but the fact remains that all three have yet to take full advantage of the chances they have had.

Significantly, Donald came up short in last year's USPGA, his propensity to miss left under pressure especially troubling, a problem that stems from what one top teacher calls his 'flippy' hand action through impact. A beautiful rhythm can disguise a flawed golf swing and Donald may just be one who has both, good and bad.

As for Harrington, the last hole at Winged Foot, where he ran up a crippling triple-bogey seven in the third round of last year's US Open, must still be giving him nightmares. Indeed, it does seem that the amiable Irishman has yet to recover fully from losing the 2002 Open at Muirfield. There, having risked his driver from the final tee, Harrington found sand, made a bogey and missed the play-off by a shot. It was more a mental mistake than a physical one, but thinking clearly under pressure is just as important as physical execution.

And then there were two.

THE FINAL CHOICE

Just in case you were wondering, the men left standing are Paul Casey and Henrik Stenson. Both hit the ball miles off the tee. Both putt better than well. And both are just cocky enough to think that they can actually beat Tiger down the stretch in a major championship. All of which will be needed if either is to win at Augusta National.

To choose between the two is difficult. But Stenson's recent victories in Dubai - where he beat Tiger - and at the World Match Play Championship give him the edge, at least on current form.

Henrik it is then.

Back to top