Hard to believe that another year has come and gone, boy time really flies when you get older.
Many wonder how good 2010 is going to be after the shaky ending to 2009 with the economy being the way it was and the Tiger Woods saga. If you asked anyone on November 15th there thoughts on 2010 you would have gotten a bullish answer. But with Woods on indefinite leave, there will be a lot of advertisers and sponsors that may also take indefinite leaves. So let's take a look into my crystal ball and I will tell you what to look forward to.
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The golf economy in 2010.
Photo: © Michael Cohen/Getty Images | | How the economics of golf will be like in 2010. |
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In checking out what I said last year, I predicted that the Bob Hope Classic and the Buick Open would fall. I was 50% right as the Buick Open went sadly into the history books. Going into 2010, the Hope along with events in San Diego and Memphis have no sponsors. It could change for both San Diego and Memphis in the near future, but I still feel that the Hope won't find one and will be on death watch. Hard to believe that it was one of the big events in the 90s but today it has a tough time getting marquee players because of it's format of 90 holes over four different courses with amateurs. The market place in Palm Springs is very limited and officials really don't know how to get a sponsor. Nice as Palm Springs is, it's not a place for advertisers since the average age is above 50. I can see that the best for the Hope is to switch to a fall event for 2011, which wound be cheaper, switching with the younger and more hip Justin Timberlake event. It will be a hard fall for this once proud event, but unless they change there ways in management, they will not survive.
As for the PGA Tour it will continue to hold it's own in 2010, but without Tiger ratings could suffer. If you look at the numbers comparing 2008 and 2009, events with Tiger playing, according to Nielsen, show ratings doubled in 2009. Another example is per TNS Media Intelligence data, when Woods appeared in a 2009 PGA Tour event, the average cost of a 30-second spot was $104,500. In his absence, that rate declined 30 percent, to $80,200 per spot. TNS’ numbers exclude the four Majors, which generally price out at around $200,000 per ad.
The big worry for Tim Finchem is how television networks respond. Sean McManus, president of CBS Sports said to Larry Dorman, "golf could go on without Woods, but not for long without consequences." That is code to Finchem that maybe a renegotiation is needed to help networks who aren't doing well financially with golf to begin with.
Still for PGA Tour players, who are Finchem's bosses, red flags won't go up until purses start decreasing. But that could be right around the corner, just look at the Turning Stone Resort Championship. Last year it was a fall event and had a six million dollar purse. In 2010, it got upgraded to FedEx Cup status and the purse dropped to $4 million. Doesn't make sense.
Still the tour has been successful in signing sponsors, look at Travelers Championship which gave the tour an extension through 2014. Finchem also drew a few rabbits out of the hat, first with his SBS sponsorship for 10 years for the first event of the year replacing Mercedes that was inching to get out of golf. Then he signed a new tournament in West Virginia and with FBR looking to get out of their Phoenix deal, Finchem was able to let them go as Waste Management signed up for six years. Finchem needs more rabbits to pull out not only the Hope, San Diego and Memphis for this year but also find a new sponsor for the Heritage, being vacated by Verizon and Colonial, in which Crown Plaza is going back and forth on renewing after this year. Other events who's contract runs out after this year are WGC-CA Championship, Memorial, Wyndham, Deutsche Bank and Viking Classic. So honestly, Finchem gets very high grades for keeping things on track.
As for the LPGA Tour, Whan has his work cut out. One lucky thing, Marty Evans who took over after Bivens was fired was able to save several events in Toledo and talk Wegman's into hosting the LPGA Championship. She also saw a new event get signed up for La Costa and welcomed back the the fold the ShopRite event in Atlantic City after Bivens chased them away three years ago.
Still the biggest problem is that the 2010 schedule is just 24 events, down from 34 just 5 years ago. It also only has 13 events in the United States and has a lot of gaps in it. Honestly it's going to be hard to get fan support when you play one week and take two weeks off. It will be interesting to see which direction Whan goes, will he just embrace foreign money and the LPGA play more events overseas or will he work hard to find more events in the good old USofA.
As for the European Tour they are right now on steady ground. Since this is a Ryder Cup year for them, money will be flowing into their coffers. But they have their future based on the future of the country of Dubai which isn't burning very brightly these days. Also on the local front, in 2002 there were seven events in England, five events in Ireland, four events in Scotland and one in Wales. In 2010, there will be eight events in England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales with only one in England. But the one bright spot is the fact that the Race for Dubai was such a big success more players are joining the European Tour.
Lastly for players getting sponsors and equipment contracts 2009 was bad and '10 looks even worse. The LPGA Tour has suffered this fate for a couple of years now and for those not in the top 15 of the money list those players find themselves without equipment deals. Also in past years players have enjoyed a lot of sponsor days where they attend a companies day of golf with players getting expenses and anywhere from $5,000 to $100,000. That has slowed down drastically and will be a small trickle in 2010.
Of course the prospect for 2010 isn't that great but in looking positive and hope for the best, the battle cry for golf business in 2010 could be the same as what Scarlett said to end the great movie Gone With The Wind. When talking about getting Rhett Butler back she said, "I'll think of some way to get him back, after all... tomorrow is another day".
