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Sal Johnson
Can Tiger keep the winning streak alive?
Arnold Palmer Invitational
March 11, 2008
By SAL JOHNSON
Publisher, GOLFOBSERVER
E-mail me at: Golfersal@aol.com


Photo: © Chris Condon/PGA Tour
Vijay Singh beat Rocco Mediate by two shots at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, winning with 8-under-par 272 total.

Tournament Stats:

Arnold Palmer Invitational
March 13 - 16, 2008
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Orlando, Florida
Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,207
Purse: $5.8 million with $1,044,000 going to the winner
Defending Champions: Vijay Singh
List of Champions & Scores
Results & Scores 2007 Arnold Palmer
Box Score of 2006 Arnold Palmer

Tournament facts:

Tournament Record:
264 (Payne Stewart in 1987)
54-Hole Record:
197 (Andy Bean in 1981)
36-Hole Record:
130 (Andy Bean & Tom Watson in '81)
Low round of tournament:
62 (Andy Bean, 2nd round in 1981 & Greg Norman, 2nd round, 1984)

Tournament information:

According to the PGA Tour, this will be the 43rd Arnold Palmer Invitational, which got its start in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open. But if you ask Arnold Palmer, he will tell you that this is the 30th Bay Hill Invitational. The actual event did start in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open and it was barely surviving when Arnold Palmer and his associates took over in 1978. They breathed new life into the event by moving it to Bay Hill and talking the elite of the PGA Tour to include Bay Hill onto their schedules. In its 28 years since it changed to the Bay Hill Club, the tournament has elevated to a level that it's considered one of the premier stops on tour, as voted by the players.

Course information:

The course was originally designed and built by Dick Wilson and Joe Lee in 1960.

It's funny how Arnold Palmer got associated with it. In the early 1960s when Bay Hill was first opened, Palmer and Jack Nicklaus played an exhibition tournament at the course and the King was so attracted to Bay Hill that he got together a group of investors and leased the club with an option to buy it. In January of 1976, the group bought the course and ever since Palmer spends most of the winter in a condo behind the course. Palmer loves to tinker with the course. The last couple of years he has spent a lot of time making changes, probably the biggest coming this year when he will take the par 5, 4th and 16th holes and convert them into par 4s.

The average green size at Bay Hill is 6,500 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour. The course has 103 bunkers and water comes into play on nine of the 18 holes. Bay Hill has been the host of the tournament since 1979.

For a more comprehensive look at the course, look at this Course Overview done by PGA Tour.Com

The Buzz:

Tiger is back to see if he can continue his winning streak. Officially it's at four straight, but if you include the Target Challenge and the Dubai Desert Classic it's six. Even more impressive is the fact that since the British Open he has won eight of his last nine starts and the one he didn't win -- the Deutsche Bank -- he was runner-up. It will be interesting to see when the writers start making a big deal over Byron Nelson's streak of 11 straight wins from 1945. Coincidentally, Nelson's first win in that streak was 63 years ago this week in the Miami Four-Ball with Jug McSpaden.

Tiger will be playing in this event for the 12th straight time and he won it four straight years from 2000 to 2004. But since Palmer started toughening the course Tiger's fortunes have gone downhill. In 2005 he finished T-23rd, in 2006 he was T-20th, last year was maybe the worst as he opened with a 64 but played the next 54 holes in 9-over and finished T-22nd. The key for Tiger is driving. If he can get that going this week he will once again be unbeatable.

Arnold Palmer always prides himself on the shape of Bay Hill, but three weeks ago the greens were in really bad shape because microscopic worms started eating the root system. Course officials replaced the turf with new turf, a daunting task to try and complete just three weeks before the tournament. But the players are reporting that the greens aren't as bad as expected. But don't look for them to be perfect this week. You can expect them to get spiked up and be bumpy.

Over the last couple of years, Palmer has been tinkering a lot with the Bay Hill course. Palmer loves a man-size test and has done some small changes here and small changes there to make it tough. The biggest changes came a couple of years ago when he overseeded the rough and allowed it to get longer and narrowed down the fairways. In some respects this is the reason that after winning four straight years, Tiger Woods has finished T-46th, T-23rd and T-20th last year. This was the period of time that Woods was redoing his game and he wasn't very straight off the tee, thus the high scores.

It's hard to believe that defending champion Vijay Singh has gone a full year without a victory, his longest drought since winning the 2002 Shell Houston Open after a two-year winless streak. Many wonder what Singh's problem is. Some say putting, many say that he is just reaching that certain age since he just celebrated his 45th birthday. No matter what he just isn't the same player he was a couple of years ago.

As for this week's injury report, Dudley Hart withdrew from the PODS with a shoulder injury and won't be playing this week. Arron Oberholser is listed as playing even though he was having treatments in Minnesota. I would say he will probably withdraw. Tim Clark has had a tough time the last couple of years, now he has a sinus infection but he is still planning on playing at Bay Hill

Over the years Arnold Palmer has made a lot of changes on this course

How Bay Hill has gotten tougher over the years:
Year Scoring Average / Tour Rank Winning score
1997 71.686 (-0.314) ranked 32nd 272
1998 72.693 (+0.693) ranked 16th) 274
1999 72.327 (+0.327) ranked 25th 274
2000 72.129 (+0.129) ranked 25th 270
2001 72.467 (+0.467) ranked 13th 273
2002 72.687 (+0.687) ranked 15th 275
2003 72.955 (+0.955) ranked 15th 269
2004 72.238 (+0.238) ranked 27th 270
2005 73.243 (+1.243) ranked 10th 276
2006 72.225 (+0.225) ranked 29th 274
2007 72.054 (+2.054) ranked 7th 272

Last year could of been one of the biggest changes, as you can see by this chart. First, he changed the 16th to a par 4. It created one the most difficult closing holes on the PGA Tour as it ranked 21st overall with a 4.411 scoring average. In 2006 the 17th hole was the second hardest hole with an average of 3.21 and the 18th the hardest with an average of 4.32. Both played easier last year. The 16th in 2006 as a par 5 played to a 4.595 average, so if it was easiest in relation to par, as a par 4 it would of been the hardest hole.

This is a different strategy for Palmer because in the early years of the tournament the 16th was a par 4. But in 1990, in the interest of creating a more exciting finish, Palmer reconfigured the lake in front of the green, moved the tees back 35 yards and made it into a 481 yards risk/reward par 5. Some may think that this will make it too hard for the players and take away the challenge and excitement of going for the green in two.

In another strange move, Palmer changed the 4th hole back into a par 4. In the first couple of years of the event the 4th was a 468-yard, par 4 and was always one of the harder holes. But he added 70 yards to the hole and made it into a par 5. Last year of the 30 eagles made on the course, 20 were made on the 16th hole.

So for the third week in row, a Florida Swing course will look a lot like a U.S. Open test. For many, this week and next will be prep work for the Masters.

One last item that will cause some buzz is Butch Harmon coming out and saying that he won't work anymore with John Daly. This is because of the article in the Tampa Tribune in which Daly was at the Hooters hospitality tent at the PODS on Saturday after missing the cut. Daly seems to be on a fast track to nothing and if he isn't careful he could find himself on some other tour playing golf.

Here are some things to look for this week:


Photo: © Michael Cohen/WireImage
Scene at the 18 hole at the Bay Hill Club in Orlando, Florida.

The major season is about to heat up. We are one week away from the WGC-CA Championship and four weeks from the Masters. The interest level will increase as we get ready for the first major of the year. 2008 has been a different type of year. The Florida Swing has taken on a different look and style and scores have gone up at both the Honda Classic and PODS Championship.

With scores going high this has brought on some unexpected winners like Ernie Els and Sean O'Hair. Will this trend continue? In many tournaments experience seems to be important, but not at Bay Hill. Since 1979, 10 of the winners either became first-time winners or had only won once before, just like with Rod Pampling in 2006 and Chad Campbell in 2004. But on the other side of the coin, the tournament has had some great players winning like Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Ben Crenshaw, Fred Couples, Tom Kite, Paul Azinger, Payne Stewart, Fuzzy Zoeller and Tiger Woods. In the past, players that drove it long never seemed to win, but that trend has changed. Just look at the last eight winners: Phil Mickelson in '97, Ernie Els in '98, Tim Herron in '99 and Tiger in 2000, 2001, 2002 & 2003, Chad Campbell in 2004 and Vijay Singh last year. They all can hit the ball a long way. Here are some of the secrets that it will take to play well this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

  • Key stat for the winner:
    There has been a bit of controversy that ball-striking is becoming a dinosaur on the PGA Tour, but that isn't the case this week. Bay Hill is a ball striking haven in which hitting lots of greens is important. Since 1997 there has been no winner that has been over 17th in greens hit for the week and three of the winners including 2005 champion Kenny Perry led the category. Last year's winner, Vijay Singh, was second.
  • Unimportant stat: Birdies. Patience is important at Bay Hill. On most courses the norm is making lots of birdies to keep pace, but at Bay Hill pars are just as important.
  • Kenny Perry had a perfect combination of being ranked fourth in both driving distance and accuracy in 2005. Look for accuracy to once again prevail and look for another player like Perry that combines straight driving with a bit of length. Even though Luke Donald doesn't hit it far, he gets it in the fairway, which is important. Also, Charles Howell III hits it far and straight. Be sure to look at the leaders this year in Total Driving, guys like Greg Owen who is second has done very well at Bay Hill.
  • All the par 5s are within reach of the average player and even though the course is more than 7,200 yards this won't present much of a problem. Look for lots of greens to be hit.
  • One thing for certain is that the odds are quite good that the winner will be from either Florida and the Orlando area. Of the 120 in the field this week, 38 live in Florida with 17 having ties in the Orlando area.
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